Net API Notes for 2021/12/08 - Issue 184: 2022 Trends
The holidays are fast approaching and, with it, time to step back, reflect, do things other than compile industry notes. In this edition of the Net API Notes, I've got some predictions for 2022 that I hope are insightful in your planning. After that, I'll be putting the virtual digest on the digital shelf until early January.
For me, this past year has been an incredible one of change on numerous fronts. I'm looking forward to bundling up, taking a few extended walks outside, and pausing to reflect on all that has transpired to a falling snow soundtrack. During this season, I hope you can also find a bit of peace, introspection, and insight for the coming year. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours.
Speaking of the coming year, let's talk predictions.
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2022 PREDICTIONS
BACKGROUND
There are several 2022 trend pieces published around this time of year, and for good reasons: they tend to perform well, are (relatively) easy to put together, and can be a stealthy way to repackage previously published content from the past year.
I could list what I wished would happen. Or pepper my predictions with buzzwords that sound impressive but have no hope of becoming fully realized in the next year (EVs! AI! Web3!). Instead, I did apply the same models I use when evaluating content for this newsletter to near term impact. I started with empathy - if I was a decision maker navigating these crazy last few years, what would I want to know?
What happens next year?
IN THE "GREAT RESIGNATION" AFTERMATH, API DOCUMENTATION SEES INCREASED INVESTMENT AND EMPHASIS
During 2021's "Great Resignation", companies discovered how much of their API ecosystem knowledge existed in their employees' heads rather than written down.
"as much as 80% of the information in organizations is undocumented" - Helen Bevan, NHS Chief Transformation Officer
In the 2021 Postman State of the API Report, 56% of respondents said their companies will invest more time and resources into API development. Chances are a fair amount of this investment goes toward avoiding further disruption by documenting as much about their existing API operation as possible.
API SPENDING INCREASES AS GROWING API ECOSYSTEMS REQUIRE ADDITIONAL PEOPLE, TOOLS, AND PROCESSES
According to the most recent Gartner CIO survey, API spending will grow 37% next year.
Gartner also claims by 2024, 80% of CIOs surveyed will list modular business redesign, through composability, as a top 5 reason for accelerated business performance.
API architectures provided the kind of flexibility leaders needed during the pandemic. With subsequent knock-on effects like supply-chain disruptions, the investment will flow to proven solutions. Tools to manage those solutions will be in demand (with budgets to match).
CUSTOMERS EXPECT HEIGHTENED MOBILE EXPERIENCES, NECESSITATING MORE API INFRASTRUCTURE
The pandemic drove the adoption of mobile experiences for what were previously in-person things. Whether that was video doctor consultations or curbside pickup, audiences are not only comfortable but now expect those conveniences elsewhere.
"Eight in 10 consumers will see the world as ALL digital. Consumers have rapidly increased their technology adoption and usage in the COVID-19 pandemic, with 63% of US online adults saying that they completed a new activity online, such as attending a religious service or exercise class. Forty-four percent upgraded their in-home technology."
The net result is always-on, mobile expectations require new and improved APIs to fulfill them.
INCREASED API USES ALSO INCREASE SECURITY FOOTPRINT COMPANIES MUST ANALYZE, UNDERSTAND, AND REMEDIATE
In the face of supply-chain headaches, companies sought more logistical information from suppliers. The rapid expansion has introduced significant growing pains. Again, according to Forrester:
"-firms are effectively doubling the size of their third-party ecosystem. And more third parties means more third-party security problems. Forrester data reveals that 55% of security pros reported their organization experienced an incident or breach involving supply chain or third-party providers in the past 12 months."
In 2022, proactive companies will move testing and monitoring beyond the company's internal ecosystem to include the third-party ecosystem. Greater monitoring of ingress and egress through the firewall will also be a source of more significant investment.
CONFERENCES AND TRAINING WILL RETAIN AN ONLINE COMPONENT
On the one hand, there will be increased opportunities for travel in 2022. On the other hand, new, Omicron-style variants will persist Covid-19 restrictions unless worldwide vaccination efforts increase. In addition, I share growing concerns about the climate impact of business travel. Finally, event organizers focused on diverse, inclusive events will struggle to replicate the accessibility of the past several years with an in-person event.
For those reasons, for at least the following year, in-person-only events will continue to be the exception, not the norm.
That said, I also expect to see someone from left field create a breakthrough online experience that is quickly emulated by others. Instead of rigid tracks, it might resemble more of the hurly-burly, emergent, everybody's-platform-bumping-into-each-other of "Minecraft YouTuber fandom":
"MCYT, or the Minecraft YouTuber fandom, is currently the biggest thing on Tumblr. It also has a huge presence on Twitter and other platforms populated by people under the age of 20. In a nutshell: groups of charismatic streamers play large-scale games on private SMP, or survival multi-player, servers and massive audiences watch the server’s narratives play out on Twitch or YouTube.
"Members of the fandom follow a mix of actual fictional narratives that come from the game and the real-life interactions of the actual players. It’s extremely meta and, when it comes to organizing MCYT fan fiction on fan fiction mega-platform Archive Of Our Own, it can get very confusing."
No, I'm not saying your next online learning will take place in Minecraft. However, there's something here more compelling yet another zoom-like marathon. Unfortunately, teasing it out will have to wait for another time.
WRAPPING UP
There's a couple of tidbits I'll mention before the end. First off, I appear on the latest edition of the APIs You Won't Hate Podcast. Next, my previous Stoplight.io show appearance got a nice callback in their year-end recap.
If you're looking for some API conversation over the holidays, check out the nearly 3000 folks on the LinkedIn API and Web Services Professional Group. That said, it's time to draw this to a close.
Until next year,
Matthew
@libel_vox and matthewreinbold.com
While I work at Postman, the gustatory system of the API corpus, the opinions presented above are mine.